Streaky coin tosses

In the previous post we looked at how the data distribution gets closer to the real probability as the number of samples increase.   And we showed this happened in our excel generated random coin tosses.   What we didn't look at was how streaky the coin tosses were?

A streak is considered as the same coin toss in a row i.e. Heads, Heads, Heads, Heads.   Would be a streak of 4 heads.

So what happened in our 20,000 coin tosses?

As we can see above, we get lots of long streaks.   Actually we get 14 tosses of the same side in a row.    That's quite a streak.   

And that curve looks quite appropriate.  It's a binomial distribution and one that looks like it should for a 50/50 probability.

At another time, we'll discuss binomial distributions and the probability of coin tosses.   But for now, lets just say, a streak of 14 is quite normal.   :)

Loss Recovery betting plans aren't looking so good now.

Do we really wanna talk about Martingale / loss recovery betting patterns?   Really?  Ummm ok, we can.   Are you sure you're expecting a black just because the last color was a red?   Are you sure you're owed a black.   Are you sure 10 reds in a row is unusual?  Looks pretty normal to me.