Roulette excel isn't the same as mechanical wheels

I've spent  a lot of time so far giving you the tools on how to calculate probabilities and check if staking plans work in excel.

The game of roulette isn't played in Excel, it's played on a mechanical wheel (unless you are playing online in a non-live roulette game and then you may as well be playing in Excel).

So what's my point:

If your number based system (martingale, reverse martingale etc)  doesn't hold up in Excel, it won't hold up in the real world either.

Ahhhhh, but you said in the real world, it's mechanical wheels, so there are wheel biases, dealer signatures etc, so maybe my system does hold up in the real world and not in Excel?

sure maybe, but that's blind luck.   does every dealer have the signature, every wheel have the same bias?  if that's what you think then you're crazy.

If you want to look at real world advantage play then we'll get to that but if your number based system doesn't hold up in excel it won't hold up with mechanical wheels.   if you want something to hold up with mechanical wheels then you need a different strategy.   and we'll get to that.

hope this helps

Martingale stake formula

I've spent a few posts now showing why employing Martingale against fair odds (or in the case of red or black in roulette less than fair odds), that you're always gonna lose.  If you want to read a bit more about it read my post on martingale in roulette begin very bad.

If you've forgotten what martingale is, it basically means everytime you lose, double up your previous bet

Calculating your martingale stake

In one of my earlier posts, i showed you this table, where for a losing streak, how much you'll have to bet to recover

I thought it might be useful to provide a formula that calculate the stake required to cover your losses during a martingale

And that is S = I * (2^(n+1))

I = Initial Stake
n = length of streak
S = Stake Required

Which means Initial Stake * (2 to the Power of the current length of the streak)

So in the scenario where our initial stake is £10 and we've lost 10 times and we need to make our eleventh bet.  Our new stake would be:

£10 * (2 to the power of 10) = £10 * 1024 = £10,240

Obviously you'd be better throwing your money down the toilet but there ya go.  But if you want to calculate it, that's how you do it.

And if you wanna do it in Excel

To do this in Excel with a table like the following

In the cell B4 (stake column row 4) just enter

=POWER(2,A3-1)*$B$3

Obviously you can also calculate it in excel, you can just double up the previous stake.  but the point is to show you how to do when you just know the initial stake and the bet number.

Please don't do martingale with roulette kids, not worth it.

Hot numbers in roulette

I'm not gonna name the site but I was looking at yet another person peddling their roulette strategy based on tracking numbers (no genuine advantage play).

Basically, you stick in the last 6 numbers and voila, it will tell you where to bet.   If the wheel spins 3, 4, 5, 14, 15 and 17.   You should probably bet on 19-36, cause those numbers are due....

Just for fun, let's see how that looks in the Excel Simulator

The Random Numbers

This is what my Excel Random Number generator produced (feel free to replicate this experiment yourself)

3, 14, 9, 9, 3, 21, 35, 3, 29, 0, 19, 36, 4, 9, 5

The distribution

Oh look the number 3 came up 3 times (surely that's a hot number)????  BTW, that was sarcasm.   We know enough about random numbers now to know that that can easily happen.  However this could be an interesting blog post in the future.   Hot numbers.

What might be more interesting is the ranges, which is what they were betting on in this system.

Their system was either avoid betting on 1 to 12 because it's hot.  but it might have been bet on 1 to 12 because it's hot.

There is no hot....  It's just some random numbers.   nothing is due or not due....

The kicker

And here was the kicker.  Don't worry, if you lose, just martingale and it'll recover your losses.

And we know how that ends...

Anyways, you know my thought on this sort of thing already.  I could type up their system into Excel and formally disprove it.   But you can always do that yourself if you want.

We know enough about random numbers, streaky numbers and martingale to know this is a silly strategy.

For more info on Martingale, read my martingale post (and feel free to download the excel tool)

For more info on streaks, read my post on streaky coin tosses

For generating roulette numbers in excel, read my post (or look at the martingale one)

Why playing Red or Black in Roulette using Martingale is a bad idea

I've been leading unto this post for a bit now.

One of the most popular techniques in roulette is to use a progressive betting pattern such as

• Martingale
• Reverse Martingale
• d'Alembert
• etc

In all honesty, these are all a pile of rubbish.  If the math was corrupt, do you really think the casino's would let you play the game?   So the idea of this post is to let you see how much of a pile of rubbish they are.

So what is Martingale

The basic idea is that everytime you lose a bet, you double up your previous bet until you recoup your losses. Here is an example with a £10 stake and an initial bank of £10,000

Oh, wow, how amazing.  this must be free money.   Except, if you hit a long streak of losses the next stake is gonna exponentially grow.

And this is how much you'll have to bet to recover your losses during a losing streak

Oh wow after a losing streak of 11 losses, I'm betting £10,000 to recover my money.   Or 15 losses, I'm betting £163,000.   Get's pretty uncomfortable pretty quickly.

What else, can go wrong?  Well, even if you are stupid enough to try and bet £20,000 to recover your losses, the casino probably won't let you.  They have table limits (i.e. a maximum bet size).   And the chances are it's somewhere between £500 and £10,000.   

Yeah but i'll never get a streak that long

What's the chances of hitting a streak of 10 losses in a row and busting the table limits.   Errrr, pretty high.   See my post on streaky coin tosses (more favourable than red or black on roulette)

As you can see from the above graph (which is 20,000 simulated coin tosses).  You're gonna hit a streak of 10 or more, 18 times in 20,000 coin tosses.   In roulette this will work out basically around 1 in every 1,000 games.   That's pretty frequent.

Still don't believe me.

Try it yourself.   I've created a martingale simulator in excel.  Which uses my excel roulette simulator and an enhancement of my level staking plan simulators

The simulator allows you to simulate a large number of random roulette runs.   You can put in whatever table limits you want (it handles it) and you can generate new runs.

And as you can see in the above run, i bust out after about 1,000 games.   Sure i had a maximum bank of 3350 but i eventually bust out.

In-fact, you always bust out. 

Some people will say, ahhh but you play it until you win and then go home.   Sure but what happens the next night.....?    It's a small amount of games until you bust out.   You can't win.

Try it, play it in my simulator.   You can't win

Download my martingale simulator

You can download it from my dropbox for free.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/sa3nyie9wadxvkf/Roulette%20Martingale%20Simulator.xlsx?dl=0

Play with it until your heart is content.  (please note the simulator doesn't handle half-bet returns and doesn't need to the point is to show why martingale doesn't work)

You can even modify if you wan to try out your own wacky staking plans

So, next time you're tempted by playing martingale, just stop and think about it before you throw away your money

Hope this helps

How to track your wins, losses and bank in Excel for Roulette

In my last post, I showed you how to create a roulette simulator in excel.

In this post, I'll show you how to do a simple of track your wins, losses and bank for a level staking plan (bet the same flat amount every time).  In a future post we'll make it a little more advanced.

The following screenshot shows you what we're looking to generate.

This allows us to see the wins, losses and bank for a Red/Black betting strategy against our roulette simulator (btw, betting red/black blindly is a good way of losing money, see my post on true odds of roulette).

1) The first 2 columns are generated by our roulette simulator, please see how to create a roulette simulator in excel to show you how to generate those two columns.   Alternatively you can manually type in your own values (or copy and paste them in) if you want to track your bank against actual results instead of randomly generated ones.

2) The 3rd Column (Bet) - this is your prediction, just enter in Red or Black (i've bet red for every row).  Enter Red in cell C3.

3) The 4th column (stake) - this is a level staking plan, e.g. bet $10 every time.   Enter 10 in cell D3

4) The 5th column (win) - this tells you if your prediction won or not.  type in the following formula in Cell E3

=IF(C3=B3, "Win", "Loss")

B2 has the result of the random number generator, C3 has your prediction.  (The letter is the column, the number is the row)

5) The 6th column (bank) - is your bank.  In cell F2, enter your start bank (1000 in my case)  And for cell F3, enter the following formula

=IF(E3="Win",F2+D3,F2-D3)

This basically means, if the result in E3 (Win column) is Win, then you add your winnings to your previous bank (D3 is stake, F2 is previous bank).   if it's not a win, then minus your stake (D3) from your previous bank F2.

6) And now do the draggy copy with each row down the excel sheet, to do this for multiple rows.  Excel will automatically update the formula cells as you drag and copy.

This is pretty simple.  At the moment only works for red/black.  but can be easily modified for other betting strategies.

In a future posts 

• will show you how to use excel to track your current bank and final bank etc.
• will test stupid plans such as martingale and reverse martingale

If you're interested in track streak, you could combine the technique in the how to track streaks in excel, to see your winning streaks or streaks of red/black results

Hope you have fun playing with this.  Feel free to drag a million rows :).   See what happens to your bank.   BTW, you will see that the casino always has the edge (should correlate with the true odds after a while)

UPDATE

I've now included a copy of the Roulette Level Staking Plan simulator for Excel in my dropbox here:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/d2508drcv73rn8z/Roulette%20Level%20Staking%20Plan%20Simulator.xlsx?dl=0

(please note the simulator doesn't handle half bet returns on zero and only does red or black.  the point of the simulator is to disprove strategies hence why i haven't put time onto this yet).

hope this helps

Simulating Roulette in Excel

In one of my earlier posts, i showed you how to simulate a coin toss in excel (or google docs)

In this article, we will look at extending that technique to allow us to simulate roulette.   We're obviously just gonna randomly throw a roulette number and not simulate physics or mechanics (for now ;).   The idea is that you will be able to use this simulator to test out any crazy betting systems you may come up with.

This technique will work for both European and American wheels.   So let's get to it.

Setting up our wheel

First we want to do is setup our roulette wheel in Excel, and it should look something like this...

• First column is a list of numbers from 0 to 36 (37 if you want to do an American Wheel)
• Second column is the corresponding number on the roulette wheel (following actual layout)
• Third column is the color of the number

So to set it up, do the following

1) Open Excel
2) Rename the tab to "European Wheel"
3) In the first row enter the headers (as shown in the screenshot): Number, Actual Number Color
4) In column A enter in each row the numbers 0 to 36
5) Enter the corresponding number in the roulette wheel in order in Column B
6) Enter the color of the actual number in Column C

European Wheel

The following table gives the layout of a European Wheel, you can just copy and past it into excel

Number	Actual Number	Color
0	0	Green
1	32	Red
2	15	Black
3	19	Red
4	4	Black
5	21	Red
6	2	Black
7	25	Red
8	17	Black
9	34	Red
10	6	Black
11	27	Red
12	13	Black
13	36	Red
14	11	Black
15	30	Red
16	8	Black
17	23	Red
18	10	Black
19	5	Red
20	24	Black
21	16	Red
22	33	Black
23	1	Red
24	20	Black
25	14	Red
26	31	Black
27	9	Red
28	22	Black
29	18	Red
30	29	Black
31	7	Red
32	28	Black
33	12	Red
34	35	Black
35	3	Red
36	26	Black

American Wheel

Setting up an American wheel is also pretty easy.  Just create a new table and name it "American Wheel" and set it up the same as a European wheel (0..37 though) and paste in the following layout

Number	Actual Number	Color
0	0	Green
1	28	Black
2	9	Red
3	26	Black
4	30	Red
5	11	Black
6	7	Red
7	20	Black
8	32	Red
9	17	Black
10	5	Red
11	22	Black
12	34	Red
13	15	Black
14	3	Red
15	24	Black
16	36	Red
17	13	Black
18	1	Red
19	00	Green
20	27	Red
21	10	Black
22	25	Red
23	29	Black
24	12	Red
25	8	Black
26	19	Red
27	31	Black
28	18	Red
29	6	Black
30	21	Red
31	33	Black
32	16	Red
33	4	Black
34	23	Red
35	35	Black
36	14	Red
37	2	Black

Setting up the random number generator

So we have our wheels setup, so we just need to setup our random number generator.   Which we want to look something like this

In this diagram:

• Column A shows our randomly roulette number
• Column B shows the color of the number corresponding to it's color on the European Wheel

This is pretty easy to setup

• Manually enter the headers (Winning Number, Winning Color)
• In row 2, enter the following formula in Column A

=VLOOKUP(RANDBETWEEN(0,36),'European Wheel'!$A$2:$A$38,1)

This basically generates a random number between 0 and 36 (RANDBETWEEN(0,36).   And then looks up the corresponding number on our European Wheel tab.   If we want to do this for an American Wheel, we would change the tab to American Wheel and set RANDBETWEEN to generate numbers between 0 and 37,

• Enter the following formula in Row 2 of Column B

=VLOOKUP(A3,'European Wheel'!$A$2:$C$38,3)

This will look up the color of the generated number in our European Wheel (again if you want to simulate American Wheels then switch the tab to American Wheel.

• Do the draggy extends paste thing to copy it to multiple rows

Voila, one very simple roulette simulator in Excel.

This is very simple and easily allows you test betting plans etc.   I use it for disproving systems such as martingale.   It usually proves it to fail pretty quickly.   I obviously have more advanced versions which can do billions of rows of testing but Excel isn't so suitable for that.    However this should be pretty suitable for your needs.

In a future post, i'll show you how to test staking plans such as Martingale and Reverse Martingale with the simulator.   So you can see for yourself how ridiculous these staking plans are.

Hope this helps

UPDATE

You can download a copy of my simulator from my dropbox

https://www.dropbox.com/s/3btgpurbtsuof50/Roulette%20Simulator.xlsx?dl=0

True odds vs Real Odds for Roulette

In my last post, we discussed how you calculate the probability of a single event.

In this post we'll show you how to convert that to odds and then compare the real odds to the probable odds.  In this example we'll look at Roulette.

Red or Black Probability

For now we'll focus on European Roulette (although the theory works just as well for American Roulette).    In the last post we calculated the probability for Red or Black to be 18/37.  In this example we'll bet Red.

There are 18 outcomes that can win for us (i.e. 18 reds), specifically the numbers

1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 12, 14, 16, 18, 19, 21, 23, 25, 27, 30, 32, 34, 35

And 19 outcomes that will lose for us

0, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 11, 13, 15, 17, 20, 22, 24, 26, 28, 29, 31, 33, 35

How to convert probability to Decimal Odds

The true probability for Red or Black is 18/37.  

To convert this to odds we need to do the following conversion

1 / probability

so for Red or Black this would be

1 / (18 / 37)

which would make the real odds

2.0556

The casino is offering odds of 2/1 which is equivalent in decimal odds of

2.0  (it's 2/1 ;)

What does this mean?

This means the casino is offering odds lower than the true probability of winning.   And the casino will profit on the game on average by 2.7% (I'm ignoring "en prison" for now).   Remember over a long period of time the actual results will be close enough to the real probability (see other posts).   So the casino can expect to make 2.7% on average for every game.

So if that roulette table stakes $100,000,000 per year.  Then that roulette table will be profiting by over $2,700,000

And this is how casinos make money.

The bad news is.......

If you play $100,000 worth of games on red or black.   you'll probably lose just over $2,700

We play 10,000 games with $10 stakes.

We win 4864 games (10,000 * (18/37)
We lose 5136 games (10,000 - 4864)

We win 4864 * 10 = $48,640
We lose 5136 * 10 = $51,360

In total we lose (£2,720), which the casinos bank as profit

The odds are in the casinos favor...

In future posts, we'll show:

• Your bankroll degrading using an excel roulette simulator and how the casino's always win
• A full post on odd conversions
• How to manage books / be a bookie / be a casino
• How fancy betting systems don't help when there is no advantage (Martingale, Reverse Martingale, Fibonacci, James Bond) - they'll all lose you money and we'll show it.

Hope this helps

How to calculate streaks in excel

So in my last post, i showed you how to look at streaks for coin tosses in Excel

In this post, i'll show you how i calculate the streaks in Excel (or google docs).   You can use the same technique to calculate streaks in anything (i.e. roulette).

What is a streak?

For coin tosses would be the same coin be thrown X times in a row.  e.g. 7 heads in a row would be a streak.

What does this look like in Excel?

First thing we need to do is track the length of a streak.   This is how it looks for me in Excel.

1) In the left hand column is the result of the coin toss (heads or tails),  you can generate this randomly using the technique described in my blog post, generating random coin tosses in excel

2) The right hand column tells the length of the streak.   As you can see in the image above, every time the streak ends, the count gets reset to 1.  If the latest coin toss is the same as the previous it increases

How do I calculate this in Excel (or google docs)?

I've used the following formula to calculate this.  I put this in each cell in the B column

=IF(A2=A1,B1+1,1)

Column A is the column with the result of the coin toss

Column B is the length of the streak.

This formula basically says, if the current coin toss is the same as the previous coin toss then increment the streak count by 1.   If the coin toss is different from the previous, reset the streak count to 1.

Summarizing the Data

Now that we've got the streaks.   We want a summary of the data.  This is how it looks in Excel

And this how we calculate it

1) Left column is a just count of the streaks (just enter 1 to 15)

2) Right column is calculated by the following formula

=COUNTIF(Sheet17!B2:B20001,A2)-B3

This formula counts up all the entries in the range that meet the IF condition.  In our case, we look at our 20,000 coin tosses that we've held in Sheet 17 in cells B2 to B20001.   The condition it needs to meet is the value in the A column (i.e. the length of the sequence, in this case A2).   So for row 10, it will count up all the sequences of length 9.     Now obviously a sequence of 9 will also count all the sequences of 10's.   So we subtract that number that's next in the sequence.   We don't want to count all the 10's in the 9 sequence count (that's the -B3 bit).

And then we can generate a chart against the distribution, i used a nice bar chart

Anyways, i hope this is useful.  This technique is pretty useful for predicting monte-carlo predictions of betting patterns and proving how bad things like martingale are.   And if you develop some advantage play system in blackjack, roulette, sports betting then this technique will allow you to calculate streaks.

Hope it helps.

Streaky coin tosses

In the previous post we looked at how the data distribution gets closer to the real probability as the number of samples increase.   And we showed this happened in our excel generated random coin tosses.   What we didn't look at was how streaky the coin tosses were?

A streak is considered as the same coin toss in a row i.e. Heads, Heads, Heads, Heads.   Would be a streak of 4 heads.

So what happened in our 20,000 coin tosses?

As we can see above, we get lots of long streaks.   Actually we get 14 tosses of the same side in a row.    That's quite a streak.   

And that curve looks quite appropriate.  It's a binomial distribution and one that looks like it should for a 50/50 probability.

At another time, we'll discuss binomial distributions and the probability of coin tosses.   But for now, lets just say, a streak of 14 is quite normal.   :)

Loss Recovery betting plans aren't looking so good now.

Do we really wanna talk about Martingale / loss recovery betting patterns?   Really?  Ummm ok, we can.   Are you sure you're expecting a black just because the last color was a red?   Are you sure you're owed a black.   Are you sure 10 reds in a row is unusual?  Looks pretty normal to me.

The more coin tosses we do, the closer we get to 50/50

So in the previous posts, we looked at how we can generate coin tosses in excel using a random number generator.

One of the things we noted is that although coin tosses have a 50/50 chance of being heads or tails, it doesn't work out that way in reality for small samples.  The following shows the distribution for one of our excel simulations (39 coin tosses)

This is what happens as we increase the number of tosses, here is 1000 tosses

And 5000 tosses

10,000 tosses

And 20,000 tosses

As we can see, the more tosses we do the closer we get to 50%, but ultimately it's still random, so we can still get a decent difference.

This tells us a few things:

• Small samples aren't sufficient to predict trends or check randomness
• The more samples we do the more likely we will get something that fits the probability
• Random doesn't look random
• Our coin tosses over a large number of samples fits the probability

In future posts we will check some of these simulations for betting patterns such as martingale, check probabilities of roulette tables etc etc

And of course, you can check all of this yourself using the techniques described in the earlier post.  You don't need to take my word for it.

What do random coin tosses look like?

In my last post, I showed you my attempt at faking 40 coin tosses.

Let's take a look at what happens if we generate the coin tosses in excel

Excel Generated Data Run 1

Here is the data

Tails,Heads,Tails,Heads,Heads,Heads
Heads,Heads,Tails,Tails,Tails,Tails
Tails,Tails,Heads,Tails,Heads,Tails
Tails,Tails,Tails,Tails,Heads,Heads
Heads,Tails,Tails,Heads,Tails,Tails
Heads,Heads,Heads,Heads,Heads,Heads
Tails,Tails,Heads

Fun facts about this data set.

• Longest Tails Sequence is 6
• Longest Heads sequence is 6
• 44% Tails vs 56% Heads

And this distribution looks like this:

There are a few points to be noted on this:

• Sequences are quite long (6), in the fake random data we only generated sequences of 3
• The distribution is not 50%, more heads were generated (eventually over time, it'd be closer to 50-50, we'll prove this later

Excel Generated Data Run 2

Just for fun, i thought, i'd do another run and this is what it looked like

Tails,Heads,Heads,Tails,Heads
Tails,Tails,Heads,Heads,Tails
Tails,Tails,Tails,Tails,Tails
Tails,Tails,Tails,Tails,Heads
Heads,Tails,Heads,Tails,Tails
Heads,Heads,Heads,Tails,Tails
Heads,Heads,Tails,Heads,Tails
Tails,Heads,Tails,Tails

Fun facts about this data set.

• Longest Tails Sequence is 10
• Longest Heads sequence is 3
• 62% Tails vs 38% Heads

And this distribution looked like this

Again the point is, with very small datasets, the data won't be evenly distributed 50/50.
Eventually over a large sample it will eventually become statistically correct.

As I said in a previous post.  Random data doesn't necessarily look like random data.

There are a few points to note though.

• If I set my excel to say Red or Black (for roulette), how many of you would think that Black (tails) was a hot color?   
• How many people would say after 6 tails, well we're due a head?
• Do you really want to play a doubling up betting pattern such as martingale (discuss in a future post) when we have sequence of 10 tails.

We'll discuss a lot of these concepts later but it's thoughts to think about.

In the next couple of posts:

• We'll look at generating longer sequences (and see the stats regress towards the mean (i.e. end up around 50%).
• We'll also look at what happens with physical coin tosses

Don't worry, we'll get to roulette and other games.  But these concepts are important to understand before we get there and get blinded by the games.